讲座题目：Sea-Level Science in Singapore and Southeast Asia
主讲人：Benjamin Horton 教授
主持人：陈静 研究员、刘演 研究员
开始时间：2025-05-23 13:30
讲座地址：闵行校区河口海岸大楼A204
主办单位：河口海岸科学研究院
报告人简介：
Professor Benjamin Horton is the Dean of the School of Energy and Environment (SEE) at City University of Hong Kong (CityUHK). Prior to becoming Dean at SEE, he was the Director of the Earth Observatory of Singapore and a Professor in Earth Science at the Asian School of the Environment in Nanyang Technological University (NTU). He has been appointed the AXA Chair in Natural Hazards.
报告内容：
Regardless of current emission reductions, global sea levels are expected to rise by 15 to 30 centimeters by mid-century due to the long-term effects of climate change on oceans and ice sheets. Even under a stable climate, sea-level rise will continue slowly for centuries. Beyond 2050, the rate of rise will depend more on future emissions. If current trends continue, warming could reach ~3°C by 2100, leading to a sea-level rise of up to 0.8 meters. In the most extreme scenario, rapid ice loss from Greenland and Antarctica could result in a 2-meter rise by 2100 and over 5 meters by 2150. Using historical and geological data from Southeast Asia, we have shown that periods of rapid ice melting around 14,500 and 11,500 years ago caused significant sea-level rises, reducing land area and forcing early human migrations. Between 7,000 and 4,000 years ago, the region experienced higher sea levels, with variability controlled by solid Earth parameters and ice sheet melting history. We developed a new fusion method for estimating high-end sea-level rise, projecting a rise of 0.3 to 1.0 meters by 2100 under low emissions and 0.5 to 1.9 meters under high emissions. High emissions would also push salt marshes, mangrove forests, and coral reef islands beyond their survival thresholds, threatening these coastal ecosystems.
